Dollar Grows as Hurricane Gustav Weakens | ForexGen

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The U.S. dollar rose today to its new maximum level in almost seven months against the euro as the crude oil prices declined after it became obvious that the hurricane Gustav won’t be causing significant damage to the American oil industry.

The dollar also advanced to the highest position against the Great Britain pound in more than two years today as it rallied on the Forex market. The Australian dollar fell to the lowest level since September 2007 against its U.S. counterpart.

Currency analysts note an elevated dollar optimism among the Forex traders despite the early forecasts that the current USD rally can’t sustain itself and will succumb to the weak economic reports from the United States.

It is possible for the EUR/USD currency pair to decline to its technical resistance level near 1.4400. Breaking this resistance will trigger many stop-loss orders, pushing the dollar up. Some investment banks have already raised their end-of-the-year forecast for the dollar versus the other currencies.

EUR/USD dropped from 1.4587 to 1.4492 as of 12:28 GMT today — it’s the fourth day of decline for this currency pair. GBP/USD falls for the six days; today it went down from 1.7994 to 1.7830. USD/JPY rose a little today — it went up from 108.16 to 108.85.

Pound May Fall 20% More before 2009 | ForexGen

The Japanese yen showed a record fast growth against the major currencies this week as the stock markets declined worldwide and investors favored the low-risk assets in Japan, spurring the currency conversion process.

Japanese currencies grew on the speculation that the weak economic indicators in U.S. and the crisis of the financial institutions may cause a global recession. Both Australian and New Zealand dollars (famous for their carry trade value) touched 2-year minimum levels this week.

Despite the extremely low interest rate associated with it, the Japanese yen performs well on the Forex market during the last few months. Trader’s panic currently overweights the usual profit-seeking behavior.

USD/JPY currency pair declined from 108.31 down to 107.74 after touching 105.52 this week. EUR/JPY reached its one-year lowest value this week at 150.59; it lost 3.5% going down from 159.25 to 153.67 — the largest drop since August 2007. GBP/JPY fell from 196.20 to 190.30 and touched 186.18 level — the lowest rate since December 2003.

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Chinese Yuan May Slowdown on Lower CPI | ForexGen

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The Chinese yuan traded almost unchanged in price against the U.S. dollar today after posting a significant gain yesterday on speculations that the central bank will reduce the currency’s appreciation rate as the inflation returns to its normal values.

Yuan is the best performing currency in the Asian region this year. It managed to gain 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2008 and another 2.3 percent in second quarter. Meanwhile stronger yuan damaged the exporters’ competitiveness on the overseas markets.

China’s strong yuan policy was caused by the two major factors — record high domestic inflation and the pressure from the European Union and the United States to revalue the yuan in order to pare the world trade imbalance. As the CPI dropped to 4.9 percent annual rate in August (lowest rate since June 2007) the inflation factor became less critical and the yuan’s appreciation may significantly slowdown.

According the currency analysts, China’s government may now switch from the inflation to the rise in unemployment and export problems. As a consequence yuan may show no further growth this year. Although the currency is believed to be seriously undervalued, it’s very unlikely that the People’s Bank of China will continue strengthening the currency without some strong stimulus.

USD/CNY currency pair rose insignificantly from 6.8381 level yesterday to to about 6.83950 as of 9:50 GMT.

Dollar Breaks Psychological Resistance | ForexGen

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The U.S. dollar continued to grow today for the fourth day against the euro on speculation that the problems are more serious for the European economy than for the United States, thus the rate differential may switch to the dollar’s favor.

The dollar broke down the significant support level of the EUR/USD currency pair at 1.4000. Market analysts await very disappointing reports on the manufacturing and GDP growth in the Europe, while they believe that the biggest problems of the U.S. economy connected with the ongoing global recession are already in the past.

Markets are very positive about the future of the U.S. dollar. Despite an extremely fast gain, a very large correction wave is very unlikely to occur soon. But some strategists predict a pullback to about 1.4200 level on EUR/USD if dollar stops now and goes flat for some time.

New Zealand dollar was another currency which lost significantly to the greenback today. Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.50 percent, exceeding the traders’ expectations. It looks like more currencies are going to lose their interest rate advantage over the dollar.

EUR/USD declined from 1.3970 to 1.3918 as of 8:39 GMT today — that’s the record bottom level since September 18 last year. NZD/USD dropped from 0.6529 to 0.6449 — the lowest level since September 13, 2006. USD/JPY unlike other dollar-based currency pairs didn’t move in the favor of USD — it went down from 107.77 to 107.00 today.

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Foreign Exchange Market is Different from the Stock Market| ForexGen

The foreign exchange market is also known as the FX market, and the forex market. Trading that takes place between two counties with different currencies is the basis for the fx market and the background of the trading in this market. The forex market is over thirty years old, established in the early 1970′’s. The forex market is one that is not based on any one business or investing in any one business, but the trading and selling of currencies.

The difference between the stock market and the forex market is the vast trading that occurs on the forex market. There is millions and millions that are traded daily on the forex market, almost two trillion dollars is traded daily. The amount is much higher than the money traded on the daily stock market of any country. The forex market is one that involves governments, banks, financial institutions and those similar types of institutions from other countries. The

What is traded, bought and sold on the forex market is something that can easily be liquidated, meaning it can be turned back to cash fast, or often times it is actually going to be cash. From one currency to another, the availability of cash in the forex market is something that can happen fast for any investor from any country.

The difference between the stock market and the forex market is that the forex market is global, worldwide. The stock market is something that takes place only within a country. The stock market is based on businesses and products that are within a country, and the forex market takes that a step further to include any country.

The stock market has set business hours. Generally, this is going to follow the business day, and will be closed on banking holidays and weekends. The forex market is one that is open generally twenty four hours a day because the vast number of countries that are involved in forex trading, buying and selling are located in so many different times zones. As one market is opening, another countries market is closing. This is the continual method of how the forex market trading occurs.

The stock market in any country is going to be based on only that countries currency, say for example the Japanese yen, and the Japanese stock market, or the United States stock market and the dollar. However, in the forex market, you are involved with many types of countries, and many currencies. You will find references to a variety of currencies, and this is a big difference between the stock market and the forex market.

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Junior Gold Stocks Benefit from Stabilizing Equity Markets | ForexGen

Junior gold stocks may finaly make a move. The New York Stock Exchange indicator for new lows reached an extreme of 1304 on Tuesday the 15th of July. That was even worse than the 1100 new lows reached on the 22nd of January. Such extremes spell one thing P-A-N-I-C.

Whilst its difficult to infer any far reaching conclusions about one day sell-offs, even panics, the odds now favour a bounce in very oversold equity markets. As for how high and how long the stock market will bounce is anyones guess, but here again, probabilities favour the market to move higher and longer than anyone expects so that sentiment indicators return to their old complacent Bullish state!

What will work during this period of relative calm?

We had noticed a very definite flight to safety since market volatility began in October 2007.

Firstly, a flight away from common Dow stocks to Gold Mining Stocks because gold is seen as world wide currency which is more secure that worthless paper money. The Dow stocks have slowly been decreasing in value for the past year as gold mining stocks have been increasing in value overall. Gold stocks is were the smart money is moving into.

Within the Gold market this has manifested itself as a flight to bullion and away from Gold Mining Stocks. Yes money had been moving gold stocks higher but the majority of gold investors are buying bullion or the gold bullion etf (actual gold bars) because it currently has lower risk than trading gold mining stocks. So gold bullion and the gold bullion etf’’s have been out performing the price of gold mining stocks for the past year even thought both Gold and gold stocks have increased in value.

Now that there is a good chance equity markets will stabilize, the trends will moderate and reverse. This means Junior Gold stocks prices should begin closing the valuation gap and discounting higher earnings based on $900+ Gold.

The remainder of 2008 looks set to be very bullish for Gold Stocks and Gold Stock Juniors Gold Stocks in particular! August to December are the best months for gold for the past 40 years so we are looking for higher prices in the near future.

Many investors do not like the thought of junior gold stocks because of their volatility. There is a solution for this and it is to trade gold etf funds. The are exchange traded funds which trade like a stock but allows your to own a piece of each gold mining company and it provides less volatility. The two main etfs are GLD and GDX ticker symbols.

Junior gold stocks,Gold Mining Stocks and More commentary to follow….

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